What Does Putin Want With Ukraine?

In 2014, political turmoil and tension between Russia and Ukraine reached a new level when Russia annexed Crimea and declared war on Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin and his government denounced the move as an act of self-defense, but to many around the world, including in the United States and the European Union, it was seen as a brazen land grab and the start of a full-fledged proxy war between Russia and Ukraine.

Since then, a fragile ceasefire has been in place and tensions between the two countries remain high, as Putin continues to support separatists in the eastern Donbas region. But what does the Russian president really want from Ukraine?

The Case for Annexing Crimea

Since the annexation of Crimea, Russia has argued that the move was necessary to protect the ethnic Russian population that lives in the region. An estimated 60% of Crimea’s population is of Russian descent, and many residents there wanted to be part of Russia rather than Ukraine.

In a speech outlining his justification for the move in 2014, Putin argued that the move was within his right as president and was necessary to protect the population in Crimea. He also argued that the “referendum” held in Crimea – which was widely seen as illegitimate and conducted in a hostile environment – showed a clear majority of the population desired to become part of Russia.

Given the long history between the two countries and the historical claims many Russians have to the Crimea region, it was not unexpected that the population there would be sympathetic to Russia. And while some of Putin’s claims may have appeared to be valid from an outside perspective, the manner in which the annexation took place was without question a violation of international law.

What Does Putin Want Now?

In the five years since the annexation of Crimea, Putin’s strategy in Ukraine has become increasingly clear. While he has not officially backed away from his original arguments for annexing the peninsula, Putin has shifted his focus from the annexation of Crimea to a push for the establishment of a pro-Russia Ukrainian government.

To that end, Russia has established close ties with pro-Russian politicians and has sought to influence politics in Ukraine through a network of Russian-backed proxies. Putin has also made it clear that he has no intention of leaving the Donbas region until a peace deal is negotiated on his terms and Ukrainian sovereignty is respected, as per the Minsk agreements.

Conclusion

It is clear that Putin’s ultimate goal is to reclaim and maintain influence over Ukraine. Despite international condemnation, he has shown an unwillingness to back down and a willingness to use proxy forces to achieve his goals.

Whether this will lead to a resolution to the conflict in the long-term remains to be seen, but it is clear that Putin is not going to give up his ambition for control in Ukraine anytime soon.